Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.481956 2.642505 2.813382 3.009693 3.230134 3.471392 3.757281
2025-03-16 2.244982 2.462521 2.706331 3.002964 3.358537 3.777039 4.316287
2025-03-23 2.114301 2.368245 2.663578 3.038567 3.511480 4.102187 4.920744
2025-03-30 1.979837 2.250257 2.573084 2.995915 3.549922 4.274880 5.341426
2025-04-06 1.870262 2.150526 2.492203 2.951273 3.572418 4.418785 5.733429
2025-04-13 1.763878 2.046052 2.395603 2.874614 3.539443 4.475611 5.997906
2025-04-20 1.715945 2.010828 2.383026 2.905201 3.652697 4.749380 6.641914
2025-04-27 1.683468 1.992366 2.389459 2.959757 3.802268 5.092811 7.470309
2025-05-04 1.652656 1.973548 2.393044 3.008801 3.946187 5.444196 8.396313
2025-05-11 1.599097 1.921510 2.347956 2.983644 3.972523 5.603128 8.988273
2025-05-18 1.551790 1.875439 2.308206 2.962748 4.002208 5.769495 9.637371
2025-05-25 1.506613 1.830145 2.266966 2.936308 4.019467 5.914259 10.278240
2025-06-01 1.464561 1.788148 2.229309 2.914289 4.044396 6.081267 11.040702
2025-06-08 1.430759 1.756167 2.204344 2.910002 4.098608 6.312230 12.056008
2025-06-15 1.410552 1.742104 2.204216 2.943956 4.221475 6.698993 13.683060
2025-06-22 1.370737 1.698879 2.159351 2.903515 4.207531 6.798280 14.490761
2025-06-29 1.332852 1.657112 2.114915 2.861151 4.186278 6.878601 15.281862
2025-07-06 1.288860 1.605341 2.053746 2.788347 4.103070 6.810224 15.523090
2025-07-13 1.274313 1.595245 2.054453 2.817404 4.213419 7.200763 17.744937
2025-07-20 1.266335 1.594191 2.068506 2.869204 4.372109 7.738467 21.109660
2025-07-27 1.257313 1.591189 2.079250 2.915743 4.525112 8.298587 25.354538
2025-08-03 1.231938 1.563339 2.050408 2.891874 4.532245 8.475581 27.705970
2025-08-10 1.208719 1.538035 2.024645 2.872043 4.546054 8.674775 30.544488